不是告訴你買哪一檔，而是告訴你今天該怎麼打這場仗。Not which stock to buy — how to fight today’s battle.
納斯達克Nasdaq
20日中位報酬為正20-session median is positive
數據Data過去 20 日中位報酬 +0.03%、上漲家數 50.7%；60 日中位報酬 +6.69%。資料截至 2026-09-04。20-session median +0.03%, advancers 50.7%; 60-session median +6.69%. Data as of 2026-09-04.
解讀Reading過去 20 個交易日，市值前 300 檔中位報酬 +0.03%，上漲家數 50.7%。Over the past 20 sessions, the current top 300 median return was +0.03% and 50.7% advanced.
限制Limit目前市值前 300 大的已實現收盤報酬，只描述過去選股環境，不能據此預測下一段行情。Current top 300 and realised closing returns only. This describes the past selection environment and cannot forecast the next market move.
淨流動性是常用市場代理值，不是聯準會官方會計項目；不含其他 Fed 負債，不應單獨當作買賣訊號。Net liquidity is a market proxy, not an official Fed accounting line; it excludes other Fed liabilities and is not a standalone trading signal.
政策與財政詳細數據點擊展開Policy and fiscal detailTap to expand
02
資金價格Price of money
利率是美元資金成本與股票估值的起點。Rates anchor dollar funding costs and equity valuation.
本章摘要Summary有效聯邦基金利率仍在目標區間內。 快取未儲存前次變動，因此方向標示需要觀察。The effective fed funds rate remains inside the target range. The prior move is not stored, so direction remains on watch.
政策利率Policy rate
短期美元資金成本Short-term dollar funding cost
3.50%～3.75%3.50%–3.75%
有效聯邦基金利率（EFFR）Effective federal funds rate (EFFR)3.63%3.63%
準備金餘額利率（IORB）Interest on reserve balances (IORB)3.65%3.65%
最近變動：現有快取未提供前次比較值Latest change: prior observation is not stored
→影響中性／需要觀察Neutral / watch
政策利率決定短期美元的基礎資金成本。下降通常有利估值與信用擴張；上升則提高各部門融資成本。Policy rates anchor short-term dollar funding. Cuts generally support valuation and credit expansion; hikes raise financing costs across the economy.
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有效聯邦基金利率仍在目標區間內。 不能只靠目前高低判斷寬鬆或緊縮，還要比較最近變動與市場預期。下次FOMC：2026-09-16；資料日：2026-09-03。The effective fed funds rate remains inside the target range. The current level alone does not define easing or tightening; the latest move and market expectations also matter. Next FOMC: 2026-09-16; data date: 2026-09-03.
03
短期美元流動性Short-term dollar liquidity
觀察資金是流入市場，還是停留在聯準會與財政部帳戶。Tracks whether cash is reaching markets or remaining at the Fed and Treasury.
本章摘要SummaryTGA下降正在釋放資金；ON RRP已處低位，未來緩衝能力有限。TGA is releasing cash; ON RRP is already low, leaving limited future buffer.
隔夜逆回購（ON RRP）Overnight reverse repo (ON RRP)
暫存在聯準會的市場資金Market cash temporarily parked at the Fed
6.8億美元$0.68B
20期 −7.8億美元20 obs -0.8B
↓已處低位，緩衝有限low level; limited buffer
ON RRP是貨幣市場基金等機構暫存現金的工具。餘額下降通常表示資金離開Fed；上升則表示更多資金被吸收。ON RRP lets money funds and others park cash at the Fed. A falling balance usually releases cash; a rise means more cash is being absorbed.
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低位判定：目前餘額不高於現有三年序列最高值的10%。若已處低位，即使單期下降也標示需要觀察，因為剩餘緩衝已有限。Repo：0億美元；資料日：2026-09-04。Low level means the current balance is no more than 10% of the maximum in the available three-year history. A low balance stays on watch even when falling because little buffer remains. Repo: $0B; data date: 2026-09-04.
財政部一般帳戶（TGA）Treasury General Account (TGA)
美國政府存放在聯準會的現金U.S. government cash held at the Fed
9039.3億美元$0.9T
近4週下降674.1億美元4w -67.4B
↓TGA 金額下降，向市場釋放流動性TGA balance fell, releasing liquidity to markets
TGA可理解為美國政府的銀行帳戶。TGA下降通常表示錢花回民間；上升通常表示從市場收回現金。TGA is effectively the U.S. government's bank account. A decline usually spends cash back into the economy; a rise usually withdraws cash from markets.
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TGA近4週下降，財政支出通常會把現金釋回市場。 比較期間為4週；資料日：2026-09-03。TGA fell over four weeks; Treasury outlays usually return cash to markets. Comparison period: four weeks; data date: 2026-09-03.
04
國債供給與聯準會資產負債表Treasury supply & Fed balance sheet
區分已發生的資產負債表變化、國債供給與情境模型。Separates observed balance-sheet changes, Treasury supply and scenario estimates.
本章摘要Summary持有證券近4週增加，資產負債表呈擴張方向，但不自動等於QE。Fed securities rose over four weeks, indicating expansion, though this alone is not QE.
聯準會持有證券Fed securities held outright
判斷QE、QT的主要指標Primary QE/QT gauge
6.47兆美元$6.47T
近4週 +51.2億美元4w +5.1B
↑資產負債表擴張Balance-sheet expansion
這是聯準會持有的國債、Agency debt及Agency MBS合計。持續下降通常代表QT；增加可能來自QE、再投資或其他操作。This combines Treasuries, agency debt and agency MBS. Persistent declines usually indicate QT; increases may reflect QE, reinvestment or other operations.
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主卡只顯示WSHOSHO合計，不把合計誤寫成MBS。現有快取可另讀國債4.55兆美元與Agency MBS 1.91兆美元；Agency debt未獨立儲存。Fed總資產：6.74兆美元；資料日：2026-09-02。The main card shows only the WSHOSHO total. The cache separately holds Treasuries $4.55T and agency MBS $1.91T; agency debt is not stored separately. Total Fed assets: $6.74T; data date: 2026-09-02.
未來7日國債標售Treasury auctions in the next 7 days
近期新增供給Near-term new supply
3650億美元$365.0B
目前僅能確認發行規模，尚無法判斷相對壓力。Only the announced size is available; relative pressure cannot yet be assessed.
→影響中性／需要觀察Neutral / watch
財政部發行國債會從市場募集資金。發債量高於近期平均時，可能提高承接壓力並暫時吸收流動性。Treasury issuance raises cash from markets. Supply above its recent average can increase absorption pressure, lift yields and temporarily drain liquidity.
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主要期限：2026-09-08 6-Week 750億美元、2026-09-08 26-Week 790億美元、2026-09-08 3-Year 580億美元。現有API快取沒有前一期或近期平均值，因此不顯示虛構比較。Maturity composition: 2026-09-08 6-Week $75.0B · 2026-09-08 26-Week $79.0B · 2026-09-08 3-Year $58.0B. The current cache has no prior-period or recent-average field, so no comparison is inferred.
實體經濟／GDPReal economy / GDP
經濟是否正在擴張Whether economic activity is expanding
1.5%1.5%
較前次公布 -0.6 個百分點vs prior release -0.6 pp
↓經濟維持擴張Economy remains in expansion
GDP用來確認經濟活動是擴張、放緩或收縮。單一季容易受短期因素影響，應搭配連續數季趨勢。GDP indicates whether activity is expanding, slowing or contracting. One quarter can be noisy, so several quarters should be read together.
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資料來源：FRED／BEA A191RL1Q225SBEA，實質GDP相較前期的季變動百分比（季調年率）；公布季：2026-04-01。這不是「債務／GDP」財政比率。Source: FRED/BEA A191RL1Q225SBEA, real GDP percent change from the preceding period at a seasonally adjusted annual rate; release quarter: 2026-04-01. This is not the debt-to-GDP fiscal ratio.
縮表模型QT model
依目前速度推估資產負債表變化Balance-sheet scenario
情境試算Scenario estimate
10年期限溢酬約 +10bp10Y term premium about +10bp
情境基準：SOMA減少GDP的1%Scenario basis: SOMA down 1% of GDP
→情境試算／不是已公布結果Scenario / not an observed result
這是情境推估，不是確定預測。結果會受聯準會政策、到期結構、再投資規則與金融壓力事件影響。This is a scenario, not a forecast. Policy, maturities, reinvestment rules and financial-stress events can materially change the outcome.
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預估縮減速度：現有快取尚未提供。假設條件：SOMA相對GDP減少1%時，聯準會模型參考的10年期限溢酬約增加10bp。Estimated runoff speed: not stored in the current cache. Assumption: when SOMA falls by 1% of GDP, the Fed model reference implies roughly 10bp on the 10Y term premium.
美國聯邦債務U.S. federal debt
公眾持有債務＋政府內部持有債務Debt held by the public + intragovernmental holdings
40.1兆美元$40.1T
公眾持有債務Debt held by the public32.42兆美元$32.42T
政府內部持有債務Intragovernmental holdings7.68兆美元$7.68T
資料日：2026-09-03Data date: 2026-09-03
→債務結構觀察Debt-structure watch
公眾持有債務需由市場、銀行、基金、海外投資人及聯準會等持有；政府內部持有則主要是政府信託基金之間的債權。Debt held by the public is held by markets, banks, funds, foreign investors and the Fed; intragovernmental holdings are mainly claims among government trust funds.
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公眾持有：32.42兆美元；政府內部：7.68兆美元；資料日：2026-09-03。來源欄位為Fiscal Data debt_to_penny的tot_pub_debt_out_amt、debt_held_public_amt與intragov_hold_amt。Held by public: $32.42T; intragovernmental: $7.68T; data date: 2026-09-03. Source fields: Fiscal Data debt_to_penny.
05
財政承受力Fiscal capacity
衡量美國政府收入是否足以承擔不斷增加的利息成本。Assesses whether federal receipts can absorb rising interest costs.
本章摘要Summary毛利息占同期收入26.1%；本財年已公布的利率、利息、收入與GDP序列可切換查看。Gross interest equals 26.1% of same-period receipts; released fiscal-year rate, interest, receipts and GDP series are available in the charts.
聯邦政府利息支出Federal interest expense
再融資成本Refinancing cost
FY2026累計 1.17兆美元FY2026 YTD $1.17T
平均利率Average rate3.5%3.5%
依總債務×平均利率年化粗估Annualized estimate: total debt × average rate1.4兆美元$1.4T
較前期公布 +1175.7億美元vs prior release +0.1T
→需追蹤再融資壓力Refinancing pressure watch
利率維持高檔越久，舊債到期後需以較高利率再融資，政府利息支出便可能繼續增加。The longer rates stay high, the more maturing debt may refinance at higher coupons, potentially raising government interest costs.
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FY2026累計毛利息是同財政年截至目前的實際累計，不是官方全年預估。年化粗估是依總債務與平均利率計算，不能用Fed利率直接乘總債務；兩種口徑分開標示。資料日：2026-07-31。FY2026 gross interest is fiscal-year-to-date actual data, not an official full-year forecast. The annualized figure is a separate total-debt-times-average-rate estimate. Data date: 2026-07-31.
國債利息／聯邦收入Debt interest / federal receipts
收入中用於支付毛利息的比例Share of receipts used for gross interest
26.1%26.1%
較前期公布 +0.7 個百分點vs prior release +0.7 pp
→需追蹤前期變化Prior-period trend needed
代表聯邦政府每收到100美元，約有26.1美元需用來支付毛利息。About $26.1 of every $100 in federal receipts is used for gross interest.
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公式：1.17兆美元 ÷ 4.49兆美元 ≈ 26.1%。這是同期毛利息，不是扣除政府利息收入後的淨利息；折線圖以每月已公布的本財年累計資料呈現。Formula: $1.17T / $4.49T ≈ 26.1%. This is gross, not net, interest; the chart uses each released fiscal-year-to-date monthly observation.
聯邦債務／GDPFederal debt / GDP
債務相對經濟規模Debt relative to economic capacity
122.6%122.6%
名目 GDPNominal GDP32.49兆美元$32.49T
近1年 +2.0%1y +2.0%
↑財政壓力增加Fiscal pressure rising
債務／GDP用經濟規模檢視債務承受能力。比率上升表示債務增速快於名目經濟；下降則相反。Debt/GDP compares debt with the economy's scale. A rising ratio means debt is growing faster than nominal output; a decline means the reverse.
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資料季：2026-01-01。名目GDP取FRED／BEA GDP季資料；這是長期財政比率，不是實質GDP年化季增率，也不是短線買賣訊號。Data quarter: 2026-01-01. Nominal GDP uses FRED/BEA quarterly GDP data; this is a long-run fiscal ratio, not annualized real-GDP growth or a short-term trading signal.
資料截至 2026-09-04。不同指標的時間尺度不同，任何單一數字都不能預測股市；只有官方明確啟動淨資產購買計畫才標示為QE。Data as of 2026-09-04. These indicators operate on different horizons and none can forecast stocks alone. QE is shown only for an officially announced net asset-purchase programme.