正常／不明顯Normal / mild尾部沒有特別突出Tails are not especially heavy
1～3
偏高Elevated開始有厚尾Fat tails beginning to appear
3～5
高High厚尾明顯Fat tails are clear
5～10
很高Very high極端行情明顯Extreme moves stand out
>10
極高Extreme極端行情非常突出Extreme moves are very pronounced
沖泡中，請稍候
準備中…
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美股咖啡館
US Stock Coffee
OPEN·—
不是告訴你買哪一檔，而是告訴你今天該怎麼打這場仗。Not which stock to buy — how to fight today’s battle.
納斯達克Nasdaq
20日中位報酬為正20-session median is positive
過去 20 個交易日，市值前 300 檔中位報酬 +1.36%，上漲家數 56.7%。資料截至 2026-10-20。Over the past 20 sessions, the top-300 median return was +1.36% and 56.7% advanced. Data as of 2026-10-20.
報酬標準差Return standard deviationσ 9.35%個股報酬離散程度Dispersion of stock returns把 300 檔的報酬攤開，看大家離「平均那檔」有多遠。數字愈大，檔與檔之間愈不齊。Spread the 300 stocks' returns and see how far each is from the average name. A larger number means names are less aligned.
IQRIQR一般波動Typical range11.54%IQR：中間 50% 個股的報酬寬度（Q3−Q1），代表一般波動。IQR: width of the middle 50% of stock returns (Q3−Q1); typical dispersion.截尾峰度Winsorized kurtosis截尾+0.35截尾後 +0.35（原始 +1.06）。極端股：Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares（-33.7%）、Moderna Inc. Common Stock（+32.6%）、Accenture plc Class A Ordinary Shares (Ireland)（+30.1%）。Winsorized +0.35 (raw +1.06). Outliers: ARM (-33.7%), MRNA (+32.6%), ACN (+30.1%).偏態SkewnessSkewness-0.26大致對稱Roughly symmetric偏態：極端行情比較偏向暴漲還是暴跌？Skewness: do extremes lean toward sharp rallies or sharp selloffs?
報酬標準差Return standard deviationσ 25.01%個股報酬離散程度Dispersion of stock returns把 300 檔的報酬攤開，看大家離「平均那檔」有多遠。數字愈大，檔與檔之間愈不齊。Spread the 300 stocks' returns and see how far each is from the average name. A larger number means names are less aligned.
IQRIQR一般波動Typical range16.14%IQR：中間 50% 個股的報酬寬度（Q3−Q1），代表一般波動。IQR: width of the middle 50% of stock returns (Q3−Q1); typical dispersion.截尾峰度Winsorized kurtosis截尾+2.01截尾後 +2.01（原始 +104.96）。極端股：Moderna Inc. Common Stock（+335.2%）、Atlassian Corporation Class A Common Stock（+130.6%）、Natera Inc. Common Stock（+57.3%）。Winsorized +2.01 (raw +104.96). Outliers: MRNA (+335.2%), TEAM (+130.6%), NTRA (+57.3%).偏態SkewnessSkewness+8.40明顯偏暴漲Clearly upside-skewed偏態：極端行情比較偏向暴漲還是暴跌？Skewness: do extremes lean toward sharp rallies or sharp selloffs?
股票池是美股市值前 300；上漲家數分母目前為 298（停牌或歷史不足才會少於 300）。The pool is the U.S. top 300 by market cap; the advancer denominator is currently 298 (halts or short history can leave N slightly under 300).
市場寬度Market breadth
季線（50MA）50MA
52.7% ｜ 47.3%
半年線（100MA）100MA
53.4% ｜ 46.6%
年線（150MA）150MA
61.1% ｜ 38.9%
站上均線Above MA跌破均線Below MA
納斯達克大盤Nasdaq Composite
縱軸0%＝所選期間收盤中位數；只描述相對位置，不預測未來。0% is the selected period’s median close; this describes position, not the future.
資料暫時沿用最近成功版本Temporarily using the last successful version
完整歷史自 1997 年 1 月起；距歷史高點＝（最新餘額／全歷史最高餘額－1）×100%，不隨圖表區間切換。2010 年 2 月起統一彙整會員資料。定義：FINRA Rule 4521(d) 客戶證券融資帳戶的借方餘額合計。FINRA 為月資料，通常在次月第三週公布；絕對金額會隨市場規模長期成長，應搭配月增、年增與市場趨勢判讀，不能單獨當作買賣訊號。History starts in January 1997. From all-time high = (latest / full-history maximum − 1) × 100%, independent of the chart period. Reporting was consolidated across member firms in February 2010. Definition: aggregate debit balances in customers’ securities margin accounts under FINRA Rule 4521(d). FINRA publishes monthly, generally in the third week of the following month. The nominal balance tends to grow with market size, so read it with MoM/YoY changes and market trend rather than as a standalone signal.
流動性走勢淨流動性・點擊展開Liquidity trendNet liquidity · tap to expand
淨流動性是常用市場代理值，不是聯準會官方會計項目；不含其他 Fed 負債，不應單獨當作買賣訊號。Net liquidity is a market proxy, not an official Fed accounting line; it excludes other Fed liabilities and is not a standalone trading signal.
政策與財政詳細數據點擊展開Policy and fiscal detailTap to expand
02
資金價格Price of money
利率是美元資金成本與股票估值的起點。Rates anchor dollar funding costs and equity valuation.
本章摘要Summary有效聯邦基金利率仍在目標區間內。 快取未儲存前次變動，因此方向標示需要觀察。The effective fed funds rate remains inside the target range. The prior move is not stored, so direction remains on watch.
政策利率Policy rate
短期美元資金成本Short-term dollar funding cost
3.75%～4.00%3.75%–4.00%
有效聯邦基金利率（EFFR）Effective federal funds rate (EFFR)3.88%3.88%
準備金餘額利率（IORB）Interest on reserve balances (IORB)3.9%3.9%
最近變動：現有快取未提供前次比較值Latest change: prior observation is not stored
→影響中性／需要觀察Neutral / watch
政策利率決定短期美元的基礎資金成本。下降通常有利估值與信用擴張；上升則提高各部門融資成本。Policy rates anchor short-term dollar funding. Cuts generally support valuation and credit expansion; hikes raise financing costs across the economy.
查看說明Details
有效聯邦基金利率仍在目標區間內。 不能只靠目前高低判斷寬鬆或緊縮，還要比較最近變動與市場預期。下次FOMC：2026-10-28；資料日：2026-10-21。The effective fed funds rate remains inside the target range. The current level alone does not define easing or tightening; the latest move and market expectations also matter. Next FOMC: 2026-10-28; data date: 2026-10-21.
03
短期美元流動性Short-term dollar liquidity
觀察資金是流入市場，還是停留在聯準會與財政部帳戶。Tracks whether cash is reaching markets or remaining at the Fed and Treasury.
本章摘要Summary財政部現金上升正在吸收資金；隔夜逆回購已處低位，未來緩衝能力有限。TGA is absorbing cash; ON RRP is already low, leaving limited future buffer.
隔夜逆回購Overnight reverse repo
暫存在聯準會的市場資金Market cash temporarily parked at the Fed
2.4億美元$0.24B
20期 −2.2億美元20 obs -0.2B
↓已處低位，緩衝有限low level; limited buffer
隔夜逆回購是貨幣市場基金等機構暫存現金的工具。餘額下降通常表示資金離開聯準會；上升則表示更多資金被吸收。ON RRP lets money funds and others park cash at the Fed. A falling balance usually releases cash; a rise means more cash is being absorbed.
查看說明Details
低位判定：目前餘額不高於現有三年序列最高值的10%。若已處低位，即使單期下降也標示需要觀察，因為剩餘緩衝已有限。Repo：0億美元；資料日：2026-10-21。Low level means the current balance is no more than 10% of the maximum in the available three-year history. A low balance stays on watch even when falling because little buffer remains. Repo: $0B; data date: 2026-10-21.
財政部現金Treasury General Account (TGA)
美國政府存放在聯準會的現金U.S. government cash held at the Fed
9736.5億美元$0.97T
近4週上升878.3億美元4w +87.8B
↑TGA 金額上升，從市場吸收流動性TGA balance rose, draining liquidity from markets
財政部現金可理解為美國政府的銀行帳戶。餘額下降通常表示錢花回民間；上升通常表示從市場收回現金。TGA is effectively the U.S. government's bank account. A decline usually spends cash back into the economy; a rise usually withdraws cash from markets.
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財政部現金近4週回補，通常會暫時從市場吸收現金。 比較期間為4週；資料日：2026-10-20。TGA rose over four weeks, which usually absorbs cash from markets. Comparison period: four weeks; data date: 2026-10-20.
04
國債供給與聯準會資產負債表Treasury supply & Fed balance sheet
區分已發生的資產負債表變化、國債供給與情境模型。Separates observed balance-sheet changes, Treasury supply and scenario estimates.
本章摘要Summary持有證券近4週大致持平，目前需繼續觀察。Fed securities were broadly stable over four weeks and remain on watch.
聯準會持有證券Fed securities held outright
判斷QE、QT的主要指標Primary QE/QT gauge
6.47兆美元$6.47T
近4週 +7.4億美元4w +0.7B
→持有量大致穩定Holdings broadly stable
這是聯準會持有的國債、Agency debt及Agency MBS合計。持續下降通常代表QT；增加可能來自QE、再投資或其他操作。This combines Treasuries, agency debt and agency MBS. Persistent declines usually indicate QT; increases may reflect QE, reinvestment or other operations.
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主卡只顯示Fed持有證券合計，不把合計誤寫成MBS。現有快取可另讀國債4.57兆美元與Agency MBS 1.9兆美元；Agency debt未獨立儲存。Fed總資產：6.76兆美元；資料日：2026-10-14。The main card shows only the WSHOSHO total. The cache separately holds Treasuries $4.57T and agency MBS $1.9T; agency debt is not stored separately. Total Fed assets: $6.76T; data date: 2026-10-14.
未來7日國債標售Treasury auctions in the next 7 days
近期新增供給Near-term new supply
260億美元$26.0B
目前僅能確認發行規模，尚無法判斷相對壓力。Only the announced size is available; relative pressure cannot yet be assessed.
→影響中性／需要觀察Neutral / watch
財政部發行國債會從市場募集資金。發債量高於近期平均時，可能提高承接壓力並暫時吸收流動性。Treasury issuance raises cash from markets. Supply above its recent average can increase absorption pressure, lift yields and temporarily drain liquidity.
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主要期限：2026-10-22 5-Year 260億美元。現有API快取沒有前一期或近期平均值，因此不顯示虛構比較。Maturity composition: 2026-10-22 5-Year $26.0B. The current cache has no prior-period or recent-average field, so no comparison is inferred.
實體經濟／GDPReal economy / GDP
經濟是否正在擴張Whether economic activity is expanding
2.2%2.2%
較前次公布 -0.3 個百分點vs prior release -0.3 pp
↓經濟維持擴張Economy remains in expansion
GDP用來確認經濟活動是擴張、放緩或收縮。單一季容易受短期因素影響，應搭配連續數季趨勢。GDP indicates whether activity is expanding, slowing or contracting. One quarter can be noisy, so several quarters should be read together.
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資料來源：FRED／BEA A191RL1Q225SBEA，實質GDP相較前期的季變動百分比（季調年率）；公布季：2026-04-01。這不是「債務／GDP」財政比率。Source: FRED/BEA A191RL1Q225SBEA, real GDP percent change from the preceding period at a seasonally adjusted annual rate; release quarter: 2026-04-01. This is not the debt-to-GDP fiscal ratio.
縮表模型QT model
依目前速度推估資產負債表變化Balance-sheet scenario
情境試算Scenario estimate
10年期限溢酬約 +10bp10Y term premium about +10bp
情境基準：SOMA減少GDP的1%Scenario basis: SOMA down 1% of GDP
→情境試算／不是已公布結果Scenario / not an observed result
這是情境推估，不是確定預測。結果會受聯準會政策、到期結構、再投資規則與金融壓力事件影響。This is a scenario, not a forecast. Policy, maturities, reinvestment rules and financial-stress events can materially change the outcome.
查看說明Details
預估縮減速度：現有快取尚未提供。假設條件：SOMA相對GDP減少1%時，聯準會模型參考的10年期限溢酬約增加10bp。Estimated runoff speed: not stored in the current cache. Assumption: when SOMA falls by 1% of GDP, the Fed model reference implies roughly 10bp on the 10Y term premium.
美國聯邦債務U.S. federal debt
公眾持有債務＋政府內部持有債務Debt held by the public + intragovernmental holdings
40.44兆美元$40.44T
公眾持有債務Debt held by the public32.57兆美元$32.57T
政府內部持有債務Intragovernmental holdings7.87兆美元$7.87T
資料日：2026-10-20Data date: 2026-10-20
→債務結構觀察Debt-structure watch
公眾持有債務需由市場、銀行、基金、海外投資人及聯準會等持有；政府內部持有則主要是政府信託基金之間的債權。Debt held by the public is held by markets, banks, funds, foreign investors and the Fed; intragovernmental holdings are mainly claims among government trust funds.
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公眾持有：32.57兆美元；政府內部：7.87兆美元；資料日：2026-10-20。來源欄位為Fiscal Data debt_to_penny的tot_pub_debt_out_amt、debt_held_public_amt與intragov_hold_amt。Held by public: $32.57T; intragovernmental: $7.87T; data date: 2026-10-20. Source fields: Fiscal Data debt_to_penny.
05
財政承受力Fiscal capacity
衡量美國政府收入是否足以承擔不斷增加的利息成本。Assesses whether federal receipts can absorb rising interest costs.
本章摘要Summary毛利息占同期收入25.2%；本財年已公布的利率、利息、收入與GDP序列可切換查看。Gross interest equals 25.2% of same-period receipts; released fiscal-year rate, interest, receipts and GDP series are available in the charts.
聯邦政府利息支出Federal interest expense
再融資成本Refinancing cost
FY2026累計 1.36兆美元FY2026 YTD $1.36T
平均利率Average rate3.5%3.5%
依總債務×平均利率年化粗估Annualized estimate: total debt × average rate1.43兆美元$1.43T
較前期公布 +925.9億美元vs prior release +0.1T
→需追蹤再融資壓力Refinancing pressure watch
利率維持高檔越久，舊債到期後需以較高利率再融資，政府利息支出便可能繼續增加。The longer rates stay high, the more maturing debt may refinance at higher coupons, potentially raising government interest costs.
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FY2026累計毛利息是同財政年截至目前的實際累計，不是官方全年預估。年化粗估是依總債務與平均利率計算，不能用Fed利率直接乘總債務；兩種口徑分開標示。資料日：2026-09-30。FY2026 gross interest is fiscal-year-to-date actual data, not an official full-year forecast. The annualized figure is a separate total-debt-times-average-rate estimate. Data date: 2026-09-30.
國債利息／聯邦收入Debt interest / federal receipts
收入中用於支付毛利息的比例Share of receipts used for gross interest
25.2%25.2%
較前期公布 -1.0 個百分點vs prior release -1.0 pp
→需追蹤前期變化Prior-period trend needed
代表聯邦政府每收到100美元，約有25.2美元需用來支付毛利息。About $25.2 of every $100 in federal receipts is used for gross interest.
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公式：1.36兆美元 ÷ 5.4兆美元 ≈ 25.2%。這是同期毛利息，不是扣除政府利息收入後的淨利息；折線圖以每月已公布的本財年累計資料呈現。Formula: $1.36T / $5.4T ≈ 25.2%. This is gross, not net, interest; the chart uses each released fiscal-year-to-date monthly observation.
聯邦債務／GDPFederal debt / GDP
債務相對經濟規模Debt relative to economic capacity
122.6%122.6%
名目 GDPNominal GDP32.56兆美元$32.56T
近1年 +2.0%1y +2.0%
↑財政壓力增加Fiscal pressure rising
債務／GDP用經濟規模檢視債務承受能力。比率上升表示債務增速快於名目經濟；下降則相反。Debt/GDP compares debt with the economy's scale. A rising ratio means debt is growing faster than nominal output; a decline means the reverse.
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資料季：2026-01-01。名目GDP取FRED／BEA GDP季資料；這是長期財政比率，不是實質GDP年化季增率，也不是短線買賣訊號。Data quarter: 2026-01-01. Nominal GDP uses FRED/BEA quarterly GDP data; this is a long-run fiscal ratio, not annualized real-GDP growth or a short-term trading signal.
資料截至 2026-10-21。不同指標的時間尺度不同，任何單一數字都不能預測股市；只有官方明確啟動淨資產購買計畫才標示為QE。Data as of 2026-10-21. These indicators operate on different horizons and none can forecast stocks alone. QE is shown only for an officially announced net asset-purchase programme.
